Researchers estimate potential Zika virus risk in 50 US cities: 5 findings

New research from mosquito and disease experts at the National Center for Atmospheric Research suggests populations of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, which spreads Zika virus, will grow in the United States as the weather gets warmer.

Predictions about the mosquito populations were developed using specialized computer simulations from the NCAR and the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.

Highlighted below are five findings from the study.

1. Summertime weather conditions are favorable for Aedes aegypti along the East Coast as far north as New York City, across the southern region of the country and as far west as Phoenix and Los Angeles.

2. In the furthest south regions, spring and fall conditions will still be able to support low to moderate populations of the mosquito.

3. That said, weather during the wintertime will likely be too cold for the mosquito everywhere in the U.S., with the exception of southern Florida and southern Texas.

4. Looking at travel patterns, the research team predicts cities in southern Florida and impoverished areas in southern Texas will be especially vulnerable to local Zika virus transmission.

5. Long-range reports for the summer that predict a 40 to 45 percent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures in the U.S. could mean increased suitability for the Aedes aegypti in the South and East and less favorable conditions for the bug in Texas, Arizona and California.

"This research can help us anticipate the timing and location of possible Zika virus outbreaks in certain U.S. cities," said NCAR scientist and lead author Andrew Monaghan, PhD. "While there is much we still don't know about the dynamics of Zika virus transmission, understanding where the Aedes aegypti mosquito can survive in the U.S. and how its abundance fluctuates seasonally may help guide mosquito control efforts and public health preparedness."

 

More articles on Zika:
Despite Zika's rise in Florida, physicians say threat is minor
Top health officials tell stagnant Congress 'urgent action' is needed in fight against Zika
Infographic: Where in the US have Zika cases been reported? [March 10 update]


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