If ongoing measles outbreaks are not contained by the end of January, the U.S. could lose its elimination status for the disease, reflecting a drop in vaccination rates, experts told ABC News.
The U.S. has held measles elimination status since 2000, meaning there are relatively few cases and no sustained transmission. After 12 months of sustained transmission, countries lose their elimination status, which is overseen by the World Health Organization.
As of November, measles outbreaks continue to grow in several states, some of which are likely linked to a large outbreak in Texas that began in January. There have been 1,753 confirmed cases of the disease so far this year — the highest number of cases in more than 30 years, according to CDC data as of Nov. 18. In August, health officials declared Texas’ outbreak over after more than 42 days with no new cases. Utah and Arizona currently have the largest active outbreaks, with at least 217 confirmed cases.
“The likelihood that we’re going to lose status, especially if things continue the way that they’re going, is I think pretty high,” Tony Moody, MD, professor of pediatrics in the division of infectious diseases at Duke University Medical Center in Durham, N.C., told ABC.
Four more updates on measles’ spread in the U.S.:
1. Nearly 97% of confirmed cases in the U.S. this year are associated with one of 45 outbreaks, defined as three or more related cases. In 2024, 69% of the 285 total reported cases were outbreak-associated.
2. Fifty-six percent of confirmed cases have been among children 19 and younger. The majority of cases – 92% – occurred among individuals who are either unvaccinated or whose vaccination status is unknown.
3. Twelve percent of cases this year resulted in hospitalizations. There have been three confirmed measles deaths in 2025, marking the first deaths tied to the disease in a decade.
4. The surge in measles outbreaks this year comes amid declining vaccination rates for measles, mumps and rubella. Nationally, 92.5% of kindergartners received the MMR vaccine during the 2024-25 school year, relative to the 95.2% rate seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Herd immunity is achieved when at least 95% of individuals in a community are vaccinated, according to the CDC.
