The CDC forecasts that this virus season will result in a similar level of hospitalizations as last season, though flu may have a more moderate impact compared to 2024-25.
What to know:
1. In its latest seasonal outlook, the agency projected that the peak hospitalization burden for flu, COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus will be similar to last season.
2. Last year’s flu season was among the most severe since 2010, with a hospitalization rate of 127.1 per 100,000 people, according to CDC data. In total, there were at least 47 million illnesses, 21 million healthcare visits, 610,000 hospitalizations and 28,000 flu-related deaths, according to preliminary CDC estimates.
3. The CDC has never seen two consecutive high-severity flu seasons in the more than 20 years it’s been tracking seasonal trends, though the agency said this occurrence is not impossible. Therefore, it forecasts the U.S. will see a moderate flu season across all age groups.
4. Health experts also assess the Southern Hemisphere’s flu season — which typically runs from April to September — as a predictor for the Northern Hemisphere’s upcoming flu season. A CDC report published Sept. 25 shows the flu vaccine was 50.4% effective at preventing outpatient visits and 49.7% effective at preventing hospitalizations in the Southern Hemisphere this season. These rates are similar to preliminary estimates of vaccine effectiveness in the U.S. last season. Because this season’s flu shot has the same composition as the one used in the Southern hemisphere, the CDC said it “might be similarly effective if the same viruses circulate in the coming season.”
