The U.S. is projected to face a shortage of 70,610 primary care providers by 2038, according to the Health Resources and Services Administration’s National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.
The dashboard shows the projected supply and demand for five healthcare professions through 2038. The primary care workforce includes physicians, nurse practitioners and physician assistants who practice in family medicine, general pediatric medicine, general internal medicine and geriatric medicine. Hospitalists were not included.
Here are the states with the highest and lowest surplus and shortages for primary care providers.
| State | Projected supply of PCPs | Projected demand of PCPs | Surplus or shortage |
| Alabama | 3,510 | 5,240 | -33% |
| Alaska | 800 | 700 | +14% |
| Arizona | 5,210 | 9,190 | -43% |
| Arkansas | 2,580 | 3,050 | -15% |
| California | 35,800 | 41,840 | -14% |
| Colorado | 5,770 | 6,480 | -11% |
| Connecticut | 3,450 | 3,690 | -7% |
| Delaware | 1,020 | 1,200 | -15% |
| District of Columbia | 1,640 | 650 | +152% |
| Florida | 17,140 | 28,260 | -39% |
| Georgia | 8,190 | 12,300 | -33% |
| Hawaii | 1,620 | 1,530 | +6% |
| Idaho | 1,590 | 2,140 | -26% |
| Illinois | 11,840 | 11,990 | -1% |
| Indiana | 5,490 | 7,140 | -23% |
| Iowa | 2,720 | 3,140 | -13% |
| Kansas | 2,720 | 2,850 | -5% |
| Kentucky | 3,410 | 4,920 | -31% |
| Louisiana | 4,160 | 4,540 | -8% |
| Maine | 1,690 | 1,570 | +8% |
| Maryland | 5,620 | 6,780 | -17% |
| Massachusetts | 8,240 | 7,480 | +10% |
| Michigan | 9,580 | 10,870 | -12% |
| Minnesota | 6,090 | 6,110 | 0% |
| Mississippi | 1,680 | 2,770 | -39% |
| Missouri | 5,300 | 6,450 | -18% |
| Montana | 1,070 | 1,140 | -6% |
| Nebraska | 1,720 | 1,990 | -14% |
| Nevada | 2,230 | 3,490 | -36% |
| New Hampshire | 1,410 | 1,570 | -10% |
| New Jersey | 6,750 | 9,630 | -30% |
| New Mexico | 1,700 | 1,950 | -13% |
| New York | 18,580 | 19,310 | -4% |
| North Carolina | 8,860 | 12,240 | -28% |
| North Dakota | 800 | 740 | +8% |
| Ohio | 10,010 | 11,940 | -16% |
| Oklahoma | 2,670 | 4,260 | -37% |
| Oregon | 4,690 | 4,920 | -5% |
| Pennsylvania | 11,750 | 13,840 | -15% |
| Rhode Island | 1,130 | 1,210 | -7% |
| South Carolina | 4,270 | 6,010 | -29% |
| South Dakota | 970 | 890 | +9% |
| Tennessee | 5,270 | 7,930 | -34% |
| Texas | 21,980 | 32,510 | -32% |
| Utah | 2,340 | 4,060 | -42% |
| Vermont | 760 | 600 | +27% |
| Virginia | 7,400 | 9,620 | -23% |
| Washington | 8,110 | 9,210 | -12% |
| West Virginia | 1,810 | 1,790 | +1% |
| Wisconsin | 5,900 | 5,890 | 0% |
| Wyoming | 480 | 500 | -4% |
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