10 states set to see lowest COVID-19 case rates this week: Mayo Clinic model

COVID-19 modeling from Mayo Clinic suggests that the omicron surge will continue to gradually decrease, with a slight bump in the decline, this week.

As of Feb. 7, the nation's COVID-19 case rate was 104.8 per 100,000 people. Mayo's modeling suggests this average will fall to 98.4 by Feb. 10 and further drop to 88.6 by Feb. 12, the end of the week. 

Experts have previously forecasted that the nation's decline in cases may slow as the BA.2 variant — a subvariant of omicron — becomes more widespread. 

Data scientists at Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic built a predictive model early in the pandemic to help inform hospital operations.

Here are the 10 states and areas projected to have the lowest number of average daily COVID-19 cases on Feb. 12: 

1. Washington, D.C. — 23.3 average daily COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people

2. Maryland — 28.4 

3. New York — 34.9 

4. New Jersey — 37.4 

5. Ohio — 41 

6. Connecticut — 47.8 

7. Illinois — 50  

8. Delaware — 50.6 

9. Pennsylvania — 51.3 

10. Idaho — 57.5 

**Forecasts for Alaska and Hawaii were not provided. 

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values on Feb. 7 at 9:15 a.m. CST. 


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