US COVID-19 cases to rise by end of October, Mayo forecasts

While COVID-19 cases have been falling for more than three months, modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic suggests this trend will reverse by the end of October. 

As of Oct. 16, the nation's daily case average was 37,649, marking a 19 percent decrease in the last 14 days, according to HHS data tracked by The New York Times. Mayo's forecast suggests daily average cases will jump 11.4 percent from 33,893.3 cases on Oct. 14 to 37,747 by Oct. 28. 

Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, while deaths are predicted to fall, according to the CDC's ensemble forecasts. 

The projected increase in cases comes amid warnings of a potentially severe flu season and amid the rising prevalence of the COVID-19 "escape variants" BQ.1.1 and BQ.1, which each account for 5.7 percent of cases, according to the CDC's latest variant proportion estimates

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values Oct. 17 at 8:20 a.m. CDT.


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