The exact threshold needed to achieve herd immunity is still unknown. Many epidemiologists predict that at least 60 percent of the population will need to develop resistance to hit this threshold.
Recent studies looking at antibody testing results offer some insight into the world’s progress toward this target. Sweden limited lockdowns this spring to try to build up immunity among residents quicker. But only 7.3 percent of people in Stockholm are estimated to have antibodies, according to a survey from the city’s public health agency. In New York City — once the epicenter of the pandemic — about 19.9 percent of people had antibodies as of early May.
Collectively, this research shows that we are unlikely to reach herd immunity “any time soon,” Michael Mina, MD, PhD, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, told the Times.
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