COVID-19 admissions to remain stable through mid-September, CDC forecasts

National disease modeling suggests COVID-19 hospitalizations will remain stable through mid-September while cases and deaths fall.  

Three forecasts to know:

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to decrease 9.5 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will dip from 78,667.7 cases on Aug. 26 to 71,227 by Sept. 9. 

The nation's case rate is also expected to fall from 26.4 cases per 100,000 population to 21.7 over the same period.

Hospitalizations: Nationwide, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, with 1,900 to 10,000 new admissions likely reported on Sept. 16, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 16 modeling groups.

The nation's seven-day average of new hospital admissions was 5,161, as of Aug. 26, down from 5,478 the previous week, CDC data shows. During last winter's omicron surge, this figure topped 20,000. 

Deaths: COVID-19 deaths are projected to decrease over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 18 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,900 to 4,800 deaths likely reported in the week ending Sept. 17, which translates to a daily total of 271.4 to 685.7 deaths.

The nation's current seven-day daily death average was 478 as of Aug. 28, down 2 percent in the last two weeks, according to data tracked by The New York Times.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values Aug. 29 at 8:40 a.m. CDT.


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