3 COVID-19 forecasts to know this week

COVID-19 cases are projected to increase by more than 100 percent over the next two weeks, though national disease modeling offers a foggier picture for hospitalizations and deaths. 

Three forecasts:

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 110.2 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Rochester Minn.-based Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 33,411.7 cases on Nov. 9 to 70,243 by Nov. 23. 

The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 13.2 cases per 100,000 population to 21.4 over the same period.

Hospitalizations: Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend in the U.S. over the next four weeks, with 1,300 to 7,300 new admissions likely reported on Dec. 2, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 16 modeling groups. This figure is up from last week's projection of 1,100 to 4,400 new admissions likely reported on Nov. 25. 

The nation's seven-day average of new hospital admissions was 3,419 as of Nov. 11, down slightly from 3,328 the previous week, CDC data shows. 

Deaths: COVID-19 deaths are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 14 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,000 to 4,300 deaths likely reported in the week ending Dec. 3, which translates to a daily total of 142.9 to 614.3.

The nation's current seven-day daily death average was 317 as of Nov. 13, down 10 percent in the last two weeks, according to data tracked by The New York Times.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values Nov. 14 at 8:45 a.m. CDT.


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