3 COVID-19 forecasts to know this week

COVID-19 cases will fall over the next two weeks, while hospitalizations and deaths will remain stable through early October, national disease modeling suggests.

Three forecasts to know:

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to decrease 16.1 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will dip from 56,287.3 cases on Sept. 16 to 52,846 by Sept. 30. 

The nation's case rate is also expected to fall from 19.2 cases per 100,000 population to 16.1 over the same period.

Hospitalizations: Nationwide, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, with 1,300 to 7,700 new admissions likely reported on Oct. 7, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 15 modeling groups.

The nation's seven-day average of new hospital admissions was 4,101 as of Sept. 16, down from 4,551 the previous week, CDC data shows. 

Deaths: COVID-19 deaths are also projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 16 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,400 to 3,900 deaths likely reported in the week ending Oct. 8, which translates to a daily total of 200 to 557.1.

The nation's current seven-day daily death average was 464 as of Sept. 18, down 6 percent in the last two weeks, according to data tracked by The New York Times.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values Sept. 19 at 8:50 a.m. CDT.


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