The CDC calculates the potential growth or decline of cases using estimated time-varying reproductive numbers, a measure of transmission that is based on incident COVID-19 hospitalizations, and uncertainty intervals. Estimated values above 1 indicate epidemic growth.
Texas is expected to see growing cases, with an estimated time-varying reproductive number of 0.902, while Kansas is likely to see growing cases, with an estimated time-varying reproductive number of 0.759.
Meanwhile, 29 states plus Washington, D.C., are expected to see declining cases, and 19 states are stable or uncertain. The national COVID-19 hospitalization forecast predicts up to 3,400 daily COVID-19 hospital admissions in late April.
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