10 states projected to see largest COVID-19 case jumps by Memorial Day

South Carolina will see the greatest increase in its COVID-19 case rate of any U.S. state by Memorial Day, according to forecasts from Rochester, Minn.-based Mayo Clinic. 

The nation's seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases was 108,082 as of May 24, marking a 40 percent increase in the last 14 days, according to data tracked by The New York Times. Mayo Clinic's COVID-19 map forecasting tool projects the nation's case rate will jump from 33.1 cases per 100,000 on May 23 to 37.7 per 100,000 on May 30. 

COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have been rising in the U.S. for more than a month, driven by the highly transmissible omicron subvariants BA.2 and BA.2.12.1. The latter subvariant is now the nation's most dominant strain, accounting for 57.9 percent of all U.S. COVID-19 cases in the week ending May 21, according to the latest variant proportion estimates from the CDC.

COVID-19 case trends are just one measure of virus activity and likely represent an undercount given the increasing use of rapid, at-home COVID-19 tests. Hospitalizations were up 30 percent nationwide over the last 14 days, with a daily average of 25,383 people hospitalized with COVID-19 as of May 24, according to the Times.

Becker's calculated the rate at which COVID-19 case rates are expected to increase using current and predicted figures from Mayo Clinic's tool. Ten states projected to see the largest jumps in daily cases by May 30: 

State

Cases per 100,000 population on May 23

Cases per 100,000 population on May 30

Percent change (%)

South Carolina

44.1

101.8

130

Pennsylvania

44.2

75.8

71

West Virginia

35.3

59.1

67

South Dakota

8.5

12.9

52

Tennessee

20.2

30.4

50

Kansas

20.8

30.9

49

Nebraska

14.6

21.0

44

Nevada

28.7

41.0

43

Texas

15.5

21.7

40

Alabama

10.5

14.6

39

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. Forecasts were unavailable for Alaska and Hawaii. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in the calculations in this table. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values at 3:05 p.m. CDT May 25.

 

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