New dementia cases worldwide are projected to more than double by 2050, from an estimated 11.4 million in 2023 to 24.7 million, according to a meta-analysis published Oct. 12 in JAMA Neurology.
Researchers led by the University of New South Wales in Sydney analyzed participant-level data from 22 population-based cohorts. The cohorts included 38,418 adults aged 60 and older without dementia at baseline, across 18 countries and territories on six continents. Approximately 3,001 participants developed dementia as of 2021.
The projection assumes age- and sex-specific dementia rates stay constant. That means the growth reflects an aging global population, not an increase in individual risk.
Four more findings:
- The global age- and sex-standardized incidence rate was 9.7 new cases per 1,000 person-years.
- Women had a significantly higher age-standardized rate than men: 10.6 vs. 8.6 per 1,000 person-years. Crude rates showed no sex difference. The authors said this suggests that factors beyond women’s longer life spans likely contribute to their higher dementia prevalence.
- Low- and middle-income countries had a standardized rate of 13.6 per 1,000 person-years, compared with 8.3 in high-income countries. Lower education was more strongly linked to dementia in lower-income countries, though the authors called that analysis exploratory.
- North America’s rate was 9.9 per 1,000 person-years, drawn from three U.S. cohorts in New York City, Indianapolis and the Sacramento, Calif., area.
The authors said the estimates are meant to help plan prevention, diagnosis and memory care services.
The study has limits. The cohorts began between 1990 and 2011, and no data came from the Middle East. The authors also found large differences between studies and noted that diagnostic tools may not work equally well across languages and literacy levels.
The National Institute on Aging funded the research.
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