Seven takeaways from the report:
- The U.S. market on a net price basis is expected to grow 0 percent to 3 percent over the next five years, down from 3 percent for the last five years.
- Five years from now, medicine spending will be nearly 60 percent from specialty drugs in developed markets and 50 percent globally. Older and traditional therapies will become progressively less expensive.
- Medicine spending through 2025 is expected to be a cumulative $88 billion higher than the pre-COVID outlook, despite new vaccine spending and declines in spending unrelated to the pandemic or the COVID-19 vaccine.
- Through 2025, the number of new active substances launches are projected to continue at an above-average rate, with an average of 54 to 63 per year. The last five years averaged 52 per year.
- The impact of exclusivity losses will increase to $166 billion over the next five years, mostly due to the availability of biosimilars. The cumulative savings from biosimilars is expected to reach $285 billion.
- The two leading global therapy areas, oncology and immunology, are expected to grow 9 percent to 12 percent through 2025. Oncology is projected to add 100 new treatments over five years, contributing to an increase in spending of more than $100 billion, for a total of more than $260 billion in 2025.
- The worldwide COVID-19 vaccination effort is expected to be completed within two years, but people will likely require periodic booster shots, with total vaccine costs reaching $157 billion through 2025.
Read the full report here.
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