Middle-age adults who use GLP-1 medications for obesity could save an average of $192,735 in lifetime medical costs, according to a study published in June by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Researchers from Los Angeles-based University of Southern California simulated health and economic outcomes for U.S. adults ages 25 and older, comparing lifetime trajectories for people who used GLP-1s for obesity with those who did not. Obesity was defined as a body mass index higher than 30.
Here are five things to know:
- Adults ages 40-50 without college degrees could save about $220,000 in lifetime medical expenses, compared with $163,000 for college-educated individuals.
- Adults who begin treatment between ages 25 and 30 could save as much as $270,800 over their lifetime. The study assumed continuous lifetime use and did not account for treatment discontinuation due to cost or side effects.
- The findings add to a growing body of evidence on GLP-1 cost-effectiveness. A September 2025 analysis from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review found GLP-1s offer substantial health benefits and represent a cost-effective option for treating obesity — a reversal from ICER’s 2022 assessment, which concluded the drugs did not outperform lifestyle changes alone.
- Access remains a persistent gap. A 2026 Pharmaceutical Strategies Group survey of 237 benefits leaders found about 75% of health plan providers do not cover GLP-1s for obesity-related weight loss, and nearly half said they would not provide coverage at any price, according to a June 14 report from Fortune.
- That resistance has played out at the federal level, too. CMS declined to move forward with Medicare and Medicaid obesity coverage in its 2026 final rule, citing pushback from payers and a projected $35 billion increase in federal spending over 10 years. A voluntary Medicare coverage pathway has been extended through December 2027 after insufficient plan participation prevented its original January 2027 launch.
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