In one study from Harvard Medical School, researchers found, as expected, much of the deceleration between 2009 and 2011 was driven by the recession, which caused many to lose employer-sponsored health insurance. That led many to seek less care and pay for what care they did receive out of pocket, while shifting some of the cost of the uninsured onto group plans. But the authors found that although Americans paid more out of pocket for their care, the costs of that care grew more slowly than it had previously.
A separate Harvard study found that the lower spending growth trend, amounting to $514 billion or 16 percent less than CMS actuaries predicted for years 2003 through 2012, began well before the recession, such that job market factors and government payment cuts could only account for 45 percent of the savings. They determined if certain factors continue — reduced drug and imaging technology development paired with higher efficiency and patient cost-sharing — government healthcare spending over the next 10 years could be $770 billion less than current predictions.
Some skeptics say the data is not proof the problem with healthcare cost inflation is near a fix. A report co-authored by the Kaiser Family Foundation, Temple University and the Altarum Institute released last month found economic inflation and growth has explained 85 percent of healthcare spending growth since 1965. The authors estimated the economic downturn was 77 percent responsible for the latest slowdown, and they expressed doubt the change would be permanent.
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