In a quarterly survey, experts said the probability of a recession was 48%, according to an Oct. 15 report. By comparison, that figure was 54% in the Journal‘s July survey.
“The probability of recession continues to recede in the U.S. as the banking turmoil subsides and strong labor market resilience and rising real incomes support consumer demand,” BMO economists Doug Porter and Scott Anderson, PhD, said in the report.
Three key factors led to the new consensus: declining inflation, the Federal Reserve being done with raising interest rates, and robust economic growth and labor markets.
Sixty-five economists were surveyed between Oct. 6-11.
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