The CBO said the groups had projected the gross cost of the health law would be $214 billion in 2019, but now project a cost of $148 billion. That’s a difference of about one-third.
The revised projection was part of the CBO’s answers to recent questions from Congressional members. In its response to lawmakers, the CBO attributed its downward revision, in part, to adjusted forecasts for health insurance enrollment.
“For example, new data show the growth of enrollment in health insurance through the ACA’s marketplaces has been slower than expected, so CBO and JCT have revised downward their estimates of subsidies for coverage through the marketplaces, particularly the estimates for the 2016–2019 period,” the CBO said.
The CBO also noted overall growth of healthcare costs covered by private insurance and by Medicare and Medicaid has slowed.
“Although it is unclear how much of that slowdown is attributable to the recession and its aftermath and how much is attributable to other factors, the slower growth has been sufficiently broad and persistent to persuade the agencies to significantly lower their projections of federal costs for healthcare,” the CBO said.
Additionally, the CBO said judicial decisions, new legislation and administrative actions influenced the downward revision. The group specifically cited the Supreme Court decision giving states the option to expand Medicaid.
“As a result of such developments, assessing the accuracy of CBO and JCT’s March 2010 estimate has become more difficult over time,” the CBO concluded.
More articles on healthcare finance:
How CHS, LifePoint, UHS, Tenet and HCA fared in Q4
CMS moves forward with RAC program expansion
Partners’ hospitals to lay off employees as part of cost-cutting plan
