Of employed adults who could be enrolled in Medicaid expansion and face upcoming work requirements, 19.8% are at risk of noncompliance due to their hours.
Under HR 1, many expansion enrollees will need to work, attend school or volunteer for at least 80 hours per month by Jan. 1, 2027, to retain Medicaid coverage. These enrollees will also face more frequent eligibility checks.
Researchers from Boston University and Columbia-based University of South Carolina led the study, looking at adults between 18 and 64 years old plausibly enrolled in Medicaid expansion.
Of that working population, 13.6% will usually hover around the hours threshold, and 7.6% log variable hours. Less than 2% face both risks of noncompliance.
Female adults had a 22% higher probability of being at risk of noncompliance compared to male adults. Married individuals had an 18% lower probability than their unmarried counterparts.
While the study tried to account for exemptions, as well as various ways the community engagement requirements could be fulfilled, the researchers acknowledged certain limitations, such as with tracking pregnancies and medical frailty.
CMS finalized parameters for the community engagement requirements in June. Some states have already secured approval to kick off these requirements before 2027.
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