Future Healthcare Cost Spending Estimates All But Useless — Unless Your Crystal Ball Can Predict New Medical Technologies

Last week, Jonathan Holmes, a research fellow at the Center for International Development at Harvard University, wrote a great article on rising healthcare costs for Slate on behalf of the American Prosperity Census, an organization that seeks to answer the question: “What does the U.S. need to focus on to remain prosperous in 2040, one generation from now?” The article focuses on rising healthcare costs and the threat these costs create for future American prosperity. Additionally, he contends that predicting future healthcare costs is nearly impossible, because costs are essentially driven by a single factor that is nearly impossible to predict: new medical technologies.Holmes argues that new technologies — more than any other potential driver of costs, such as an aging population or coverage expansion — have led to cost growth. He also debunks arguments that the healthcare reform law will significantly impact healthcare costs. While Democrats have promoted it as a means of cost containment, Republicans have worried it will lead to increased government spending; Holmes says neither arguments are very accurate. He writes:
“The ACA is neither the fiscal nightmare that the current debate in Congress would suggest, nor has it yet proven to be the panacea for cost containment. It is not the primary driver of the recent spending growth slowdown which started in 2006, two years before Barack Obama was elected president. In the short and medium term, the ACA will increase spending through expanded access to Medicaid and private insurance, but insurance expansion is expected to only increase average annual growth rates of health spending by 0.1 percent per year, a small effect relative to overall trends in spending growth.”
Instead, he argues the explosion of costly medical technologies has led to the unsustainable rate of healthcare spending growth:

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“In the long run, it is the development and adoption of new medical technologies and practices which drive trends in health costs. Other factors, such as the aging population and increased obesity, play a role, but their importance is secondary. The U.S. has led the world in spending growth because it has been quick to adopt more expensive technologies and practices — in many cases, even if there is no evidence that they lead to improved outcomes. For example, the U.S. is the world leader in the use of expensive robotic surgery techniques, even though there is no evidence that robotic surgery has major benefits compared to conventional surgery. In the U.S., a significant fraction of Medicare spending also goes to intensive hospital care for the elderly, despite studies finding that the benefits are minor.

As I have previously explored this blog, in every industry but healthcare, technological advances generally lead to reduced costs over time. In healthcare, however, technology creates additional cost.

While this alone is problematic, even more concerning is the institutional failure within the industry to assess the effectiveness of new technologies. As Holmes explains:

“Further cost control will require changing the way the U.S. rewards innovators in the medical sector. In other sectors, from airlines to computing, technology growth is often associated with reduced costs as companies compete to lower prices…As long as the U.S. continues to adopt and utilize those high-cost technologies that provide little to no marginal benefit to patients such as proton beam therapy, robotic surgery, and intensive end-of-life care for elderly patients, growth in the cost of healthcare will continue to define the next generation.”

To be fair, the argument isn’t as simple as it sounds on the surface. For one, comparative effectiveness testing of new treatments is time consuming and costly, and could create delays in treatment availability (or, at least, coverage).

Additionally, restricting treatment options, even when supported with evidence, goes against a long-held belief in our country about healthcare: When suffering, everyone should have access to any possible treatment that could alleviate that suffering, even if its chances of working (or outperforming current treatment options) are low, and its costs high.

While proton beam treatment of certain cancers hasn’t been shown to be more effective than less costlier treatments, you can be sure the first insurer(s) who refuse to cover it will face a public relations nightmare.

Yet, despite these challenges, our nation must better rein in our use of costly new medical technologies that don’t stand up to comparative testing. The prosperity of our nation for the next generation relies on it.

 

 

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