Increasing household premium contributions for employer-sponsored health insurance by $100 could motivate 2.25 million people to switch to buying coverage through the new exchanges and increase federal outlays by $6.7 billion, according to a Health Affairs study.
The researchers based their projections on data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component — a nationally representative survey of healthcare use, health insurance status, healthcare expenses and overall health status. The study assumed people would switch from employer-based coverage when the exchanges became more financially beneficial for them. At the average U.S. premium contribution rate of $2,450, about 37 million people would benefit from participating in the exchanges, and federal outlays for exchange subsidies would be $132 billion in 2014 dollars.
At the average contribution rate level, outlays incurred through federal subsidies to help with the cost of coverage through the exchanges generally outpace revenues from increased income taxes and penalties as a result of people switching from employer-based insurance, according to the study.
The findings suggest minor changes in premium costs could have a significant impact on federal expenditures, and policymakers should plan for the exchange subsidies to cost the government more than expected, according to the study.
More Articles on Health Insurance Premiums:
Employer Plan Premiums Show Slow Growth in 2013, Survey Finds
Study: Mandate Delay Won't Affect PPACA Costs, Coverage
HHS: Competition, Transparency Lower Exchange Plan Premiums by 18%