The authors of the study analyzed the likely impact of the 90-90-90 program, which was launched in 2014 by the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS to diagnose 90 percent of HIV-infected persons across the world, link 90 percent of identified cases to antiretroviral therapy and achieve virologic suppression in 90 percent of ART recipients.
Using a computer simulation model, the research team discovered the 90-90-90 strategy can prevent more than 2 million new HIV infections and more than 2.4 million deaths worldwide over the next decade. Moreover, the program can help prevent more than 1.6 million children from being orphaned by HIV in the next 10 years. Altogether, these averted infections and deaths can save 13 million patient-years of life compared with the current pace of HIV detection and treatment over the next five and 10 years.
The 90-90-90 strategy would cost an estimated $54 billion to implement worldwide, a 42 percent increase over the costs of existing strategies, but would yield a cost-effectiveness ratio of $1,260 per year of life saved.
“Based on our findings, there is nothing overstated about the suggestion that 90-90-90 could lay the foundation for a healthier, more just and equitable world for future generations,” said led author Rochelle P. Walensky, MD. “Yes it would be very expensive, but it would be worth every penny.”
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