The report used an analysis based on the Urban Institute’s Health Insurance Policy Simulation Model, which evaluated three possible scenarios — worst case, slow growth in incomes and continuing high growth rates for healthcare costs; intermediate case, somewhat faster growth in incomes, but a lower growth rate for healthcare costs; and best case, full employment, faster income growth and even slower growth in healthcare costs.
According to the study, even in the best-case scenario, healthcare costs and uninsured rates would rise. The amount of uncompensated care in the health system would increase from $62.1 billion in 2009 to $141.4 billion in 2019 in the worst case and $106.6 billion in the best case. This would put a tremendous strain on health systems, hospitals, providers of clinical care and local municipalities, according to the report.
Total individual and family spending on premiums and out-of-pocket costs could increase 68 percent by 2019 in the worst-case scenario and by 46 percent in the best-case scenario. The costs for employers would increase by 72 percent in the best-case scenario. The study estimated only 42.9 percent of people would be covered by employer-sponsored insurance by 2019.
Additionally, the study found that Medicaid and CHIP spending could increase from $251.2 billion this year to $519.7 billion in 2019 and enrollment in these programs could increase by 13.3 million to 20.3 billion in 2019. Overall, the study found that without reform, 65.7 million people could be uninsured by 2019 in the worst case, compared to 62.2 million in the intermediate case and 53.1 million under the best case.
Read the news release on the new Robert Wood Johnson Foundation study.
Read the entire Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Reform: The Cost of Failure report (pdf).
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