Measles outbreaks could cost the U.S. healthcare system $1.5 billion annually by 2030 if vaccination rates continue to drop, according to a new analysis from researchers at Yale School of Public Health in New Haven, Conn.
The report, published Feb. 25, is based on county-level vaccination coverage data. Researchers used an integrated statistical and transmission modeling framework to estimate predicted increases in cases, hospitalizations and associated costs.
If measles-mumps-rubella vaccination rates decline 1% annually for the next five years, associated medical and societal costs could reach $1.5 billion, the report found. This figure includes $41.4 million in direct medical costs, $947 million to cover public health outbreak response efforts and $510 million in lost productivity and missed work.
According to researchers’ projections, a sustained 1% decline in vaccine coverage could lead to more than 17,000 cases, 4,085 admissions and 36 deaths annually by 2030.
The scenario is “highly plausible, if not conservative given current policy and coverage trajectory,” researchers said. Nationally, MMR coverage fell between 2.5 and 3 percentage points over 2019-20 and 2024-25, which is about 0.3 to 0.4 points per year on average. Researchers note that these declines occurred prior to sweeping federal vaccine policy changes in 2025 and 2026 under HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., including reducing the number of vaccines routinely recommended for children and adolescents, and ending universal COVID-19 vaccine recommendations.
When looking at childhood vaccines more broadly, more than half of U.S. counties have seen a steady increase in nonmedical exemptions among kindergartners since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a recent analysis byNBC News and Stanford (Calif.) University. That report found more than 53% of counties saw an increase of at least 1 percentage point in nonmedical vaccine exemptions since 2019.
More than 1,000 measles cases have been confirmed in the U.S. in the first two months of 2026 — nearly half of the 2,280 cases recorded in all of 2025, according to CDC data. South Carolina is experiencing the largest measles outbreak in a generation, with nearly 1,000 cases confirmed since October. The vast majority of cases have been reported among individuals who were unvaccinated.
When asked by NBC News, the South Carolina Department of Public Health declined to share how much contract tracing, vaccine clinics and staffing to respond to the outbreak have cost, though confirmed the CDC had approved and sent $100,000 to support response efforts.
Meanwhile, an HHS official told the news outlet the CDC has sent $8.5 million to seven parts of the country grappling with measles outbreaks over the past year.
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