Flu season is off to an early start, with weekly lab-confirmed flu hospitalizations nearly tripling between early September and early October, according to CDC data.
Hospitals reported 3,334 flu admissions in the week ending Oct. 3. That’s up from 2,572 the week before and 1,133 in the week ending Sept. 5. The national admission rate rose to 1.0 per 100,000 people, up from 0.3 in early September.
The West is furthest ahead. “California has a full-on flu epidemic right now,” Scott Gottlieb, MD, a former FDA commissioner, said in an interview with CNBC.
Flu test positivity there is running about 9.5%. That’s close to last season’s peak of about 11.5%, “and it’s still very early in the season,” Dr. Gottlieb said. His figure matches the CDC’s data for HHS Region 9, which includes Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada. Positivity nationally was 3.6%.
The hospitalization rate is about 1.1 per 100,000 people, compared with about 0.2 at this point last year, he said.
“The hospitalization rate is also concerning because it suggests that this is a more virulent flu that’s causing a lot of illness,” Dr. Gottlieb said.
Dr. Gottlieb said cases are also rising in the South. He said flu “tends to be a regionalized epidemic,” reaching different parts of the country at different points in a season. If California’s trend spreads, “that would be the indication that this could be a bad flu season,” he said.
The CDC said national activity is “higher than typically observed at this time of year” but “remains within expected seasonal variation.”
Here are six more things to know:
1. Older adults have the highest admission rates. Adults 65 and older had the highest admission rate at 3.3 per 100,000, followed by adults ages 50 to 64 at 0.9 and children ages 0 to 4 at 0.8. Rates rose among both the oldest and youngest groups.
2. Admissions are rising in most regions. Admission rates rose in six of 10 HHS regions. They ranged from 0.5 per 100,000 in Region 1 (New England) to 1.4 in Region 10 (Alaska, Idaho, Oregon and Washington).
3. Test positivity rates are climbing. Clinical labs reported 3.6% of 39,317 specimens positive for flu, up from 3.4% the prior week and 1.3% in early September. Influenza A made up 97% of positive results.
4. H1N1 has replaced last season’s dominant strain. Of 127 influenza A viruses subtyped by public health labs, 125 (98.4%) were H1N1. Last season, H3N2 made up 83.3% of subtyped influenza A viruses.
5. Outpatient visits are still below baseline. Flu-like illness accounted for 1.8% of outpatient visits, below the 3.1% national baseline. The share of emergency department visits with a flu diagnosis was 0.6%, up from 0.2% in early September. Four metro areas reported high activity, up from none the week before.
6. A new season starts with a reporting change. Week 39 closed the 2025-26 season, which recorded 198 flu-associated pediatric deaths. Starting with the 2026-27 season, which began Oct. 4, FluView will no longer include long-term care hospitalization data.
The CDC recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone 6 months and older, ideally by the end of October.
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