Ensemble forecasts combine diverse independent team forecasts into one. As of Oct. 18, CDC ensemble forecasts included 20 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction.
The models tracked the number of new COVID-19 cases reported nationwide from Aug. 14 through Oct. 16 and forecasted new cases through Nov. 13. The ensemble predicts 157,000 to 704,000 new COVID-19 cases are likely to be reported for the week ending Nov. 13.
The nation’s seven-day average for COVID-19 cases have been declining for five consecutive weeks, according to CDC data published Oct. 22.
