Outpatient flu tests a likely indicator of future inpatient cases, study finds

Testing for the flu among outpatients can help healthcare providers predict emergency room and inpatient flu cases, according to new research.

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The research, conducted in California, was presented at ASM Microbe, the recent annual meeting of the American Society for Microbiology in San Francisco.

Researchers monitored influenza A positive cases at 49 University of California Los Angeles-affiliated outpatient clinics during the 2018-19 flu season. They used tests and a global wireless surveillance and remote data management system to monitor the cases. They also recorded the total number of flu tests and positive flu cases at the two UCLA-affiliated hospitals and ER departments weekly.

They found that there was an uptick in flu positive cases in the outpatient setting one week before flu cases emerged at the ERs and inpatient units of both hospitals. In particular, flu cases reported in the outpatient setting in the Santa Monica and Los Angeles/Beverly Hills areas predicted increases in hospital flu cases.

“The ability to predict when influenza outbreaks in the inpatient setting will occur could reduce influenza-related morbidity and mortality,” researchers concluded. “This method of community- level influenza monitoring is rapid and poses no additional financial or time burden on outpatient clinics and staff.”

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