Six things to know:
- The CDC created two scenarios to predict how the winter flu season might go. Scenario A projects that COVID hospitalizations could peak in late December, if COVID activity from the summer did not peak before the start of the respiratory season. In scenario B, the COVID-19 summer wave peaked before the respiratory season began and a smaller second wave may happen in mid-January. Both scenarios predict fewer hospitalizations than last season.
- According to COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network data, the summer wave peaked the week ending Aug. 10, following scenario A, and population immunity may now be lower. The CDC therefore expects the upcoming winter peak to exceed the summer peak, following trends from the past four years. The winter peak is projected to come in late December.
- Vaccines are expected to impact the peak of respiratory illnesses. As of Sept. 7, 24% of adults over 18 said they “definitely will” receive a vaccine this year.
- If 17% of adults over 18 receive the COVID-19 vaccine this year, up to 98,000 hospitalizations could be prevented. If the vaccination rate doubles from the 2023-24 season’s rate, up to 227,000 hospitalizations could be avoided.
- As of mid-October, overall respiratory disease activity remains low in the U.S. COVID-19 test positivity rates, emergency department visits and hospitalizations are decreasing in most areas.
- Flu and RSV activity also remains low nationally.
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