For instance, the number of healthcare jobs in northeastern Ohio has risen more than 30 percent since 2000, according to a recent report in The New York Times. In Akron, Ohio, three of the city’s largest employers are hospitals.
However, Republican legislators’ plans to repeal and replace the ACA could put employment gains and broader economic improvement at risk, according to the report.
Here are five thoughts on how the AHCA could affect U.S. job growth, as reported by The New York Times.
1. Healthcare now accounts for nearly 20 percent of gross domestic product, up from 13 percent in 2000, and will likely surpass retail and hospitality as the second-largest source of overall employment, according to the report. Currently, business and professional services is the largest source, accounting for 12.5 percent of private sector jobs.
2. The government reported May 5 that unemployment was at its lowest rate in more than a decade, with growth in the healthcare sector accounting for a bulk of that hiring. Hospitals, health systems and other healthcare organizations have added jobs three times faster than other sectors of the economy since 2007, according to the report. As a result of Medicaid expansion, growth in nursing homes, outpatient centers and medical labs — and subsequently jobs in those institutions — has also increased.
3. While lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have identified flaws with the ACA, economists have said the House’s current repeal legislation could harm the economy. “Reversing Obamacare is negative for the economy in the next year or two,” Michael Gapen, PhD, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, told The New York Times.
4. Although tax cuts usually help stimulate economic activity, most of the tax breaks under the AHCA would go to the wealthy. At the same time, loss of insurance coverage tends to limit household spending and increases financial insecurity, according to Matt Notowidigdo, PhD, a professor of economics at Evanston, Ill.-based NorthwesternUniversity. A 2016 report by Dr. Notowidigdo found a hospital stay for an uninsured person doubles their risk of bankruptcy, lowers their credit scores and leads to an average of $6,000 in unpaid bills, according to the report.
5. As health systems’ expenses rise faster than reimbursement from Medicare and Medicaid, many organizations in expansion states worry what further cuts to the programs — specifically the provisions under the AHCA that would roll back Medicaid expansion — would mean for their bottom line. As hospitals seek ways to cut costs, workforce reductions emerge as a possible solution.
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