The proposed bill would roll back Medicaid expansion and federal premium subsidies and instead give states block grants to fund their healthcare systems.
For the analysis, Avalere researchers looked at the ACA and compared the health law to estimated effects of Graham-Cassidy on states.
The analysis found the healthcare bill would reduce federal funding to states by $215 billion through 2026, by $489 billion through 2027 and by more than $4 trillion through 2036.
More specifically, 34 states and Washington, D.C., would experience funding cuts by 2026 under the proposed bill compared to the ACA. The analysis estimates seven states would experience federal cuts higher than $10 billion, while 16 states would see federal funding increase.
“The largest impact of the proposed bill would be the reallocation of federal dollars between states,” Elizabeth Carpenter, senior vice president at Avalere Health, said in the study. “Medicaid expansion states and states that have enrolled a high number of people in insurance affordability programs would be most adversely impacted.”
Due to “a block grant funding cliff in 2027,” 39 states and Washington, D.C., would see federal funding cuts by that year, with 18 states experiencing federal funding cuts higher than $10 billion, according to the analysis.
Read the full analysis, including methodology, here.
Leo Vartorella contributed to this report.
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