New York Fed: 1-year inflation expectations fall to 5%

Expectations for one-year-ahead inflation continued to decline in December, decreasing by 0.2 percentage point to 5 percent, its lowest level since July 2021, according to a survey released Jan. 9 by the New York Federal Reserve.

Three things to know:

1. Three-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged in December at 3 percent. The slight drop is a positive sign for the Federal Reserve, which monitors such expectations to determine whether inflation is becoming ingrained in consumers' mindsets. 

2. Five-year-ahead inflation expectations increased by 0.1 percentage point to 2.4 percent. Since the pandemic, many surveys for long-run inflation expectations suggest that consumers still expect inflation in pre-pandemic ranges, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said in a Jan. 6 speech, according to Yahoo Finance,

3. Expectations about year-ahead price changes in the cost of medical care rose by 0.1 percentage point to 9.7 percent. Contrastingly, median expected changes declined by 0.7 percentage point for gas (to 4.1 percent) and food (to 7.6 percent), and by 0.2 percentage point for college education (to 9.2 percent) and rent (to 9.6 percent). 

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