On Feb. 25, House Republicans passed a budget resolution that directs the Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicaid and Medicare, to find $880 billion in savings from fiscal years 2025 to 2034 as part of the broader GOP budget proposal. The resolution does not specify how the committee must meet the savings target, but Medicaid and Medicare are the largest programs under the committee’s oversight.
The March 5 CBO analysis found that $880 billion in savings cannot be achieved without significant cuts to Medicaid or CHIP. The committee’s budget without Medicaid or CHIP spending totals $381 billion. Of that, more than half is already paid for through revenue collection programs and other fees, leaving $135 billion in maximum potential savings. While Medicare was excluded from the analysis because multiple congressional committees oversee the program, the CBO told Becker’s that the savings goal is unlikely to be met without also reducing Medicare funding as well.
The CBO’s projections also said that Medicaid alone will account for $8.2 trillion of the $8.8 trillion in mandatory spending for 2025 through 2034, with its growth trajectory expected to continue.
President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have repeatedly argued that they are not targeting Medicaid cuts, saying that savings will come from reducing fraud and implementing work requirements.