Artificial intelligence is expected to disproportionately affect routine, clerical and administrative roles, while having a limited near-term impact on overall employment, The Wall Street Journal reported March 24.
The Journal cited findings from a working paper recently published on the National Bureau of Economic Research website. The study, produced with economists from the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Richmond, surveyed about 750 CFOs.
The CFOs surveyed come from a pool of 2,600 that spans all 50 states, with a wide range of firm sizes across major nonfarm industries, including healthcare. The four most frequently represented industries are finance and insurance, manufacturing, professional and business services and information technology.
Five things to know:
1. Workers in more highly skilled roles, such as engineers and architects, are more likely to keep their jobs, especially if they can utilize AI, according to the report.
2. Regardless of role, AI is unlikely to eliminate a substantial number of roles in the near-term, according to the report. The study found that AI had essentially no employment effect in 2025. In 2026, CFOs expect that AI will reduce their headcount by about 0.4% compared to what it otherwise would have been.
3. John Graham, PhD, an economist at Duke University and one of the paper’s authors, told the Journal that employees with jobs that require higher levels of training and education could eventually be affected, “but probably not in 2026.”
4. Companies with 500 or more employees are more likely to cut routine worker roles, while smaller companies plan to hire more skilled technical workers, according to the report.
5. Another of the study’s authors, Atlanta Fed economist Salomé Baslandze, PhD, told the Journal she is optimistic AI will eventually create new types of work. She also expressed concern, however, that many of the roles vulnerable to elimination are stepping stones for moving into the middle class.
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