The One Big Beautiful Bill Act that President Donald Trump signed into law on July 4 is expected to add $3.4 trillion to the national debt from 2025 to 2034, according to a July 21 report from the Congressional Budget Office.
The CBO report now estimates the number of uninsured people will increase by 10 million by 2034 due to the legislation, down from an 11.8 million projection in its June 27 report. The decrease reflects the Senate’s removal of a provision that would have cut federal Medicaid funding for states using their own funds to offer Medicaid-like coverage to certain groups, like undocumented individuals, CNN reported July 21.
The report projects the legislation will also lower the average gross benchmark premiums for ACA marketplace plans by 0.6% by 2034.
The estimated deficit rise reflects $1.1 trillion in cuts to direct spending and a $4.5 trillion government revenue loss.
“Some of those budgetary effects are associated with programs that are classified as off-budget. The increase in the on-budget deficit over that period is estimated at $3.4 trillion,” the report said.
