The study, published in Health Affairs, examined four health technology forecasts: digital breast tomosynthesis, single room proton beam therapy for various cancers, transcatheter aortic valve replacement for heart valve disease and minimally invasive robot-assisted surgery for various cancers.
Following up on the predictions made from 2007 to 2010, the researchers found that only five of 20 predictions were incorrect, and those predictions were wrong because they depended on more time-sensitive variables. The researchers concluded that updating forecasts could improve accuracy over time, especially when it is affected by multiple factors.
Predictions are designed to give healthcare professionals a preview at what technologies may become common use in their industries, but many people fear inaccuracies and hesitate to invest. The researchers’ main purpose was to investigate whether the forecasts were dependable enough to be worth considering investment, the report said.
