Will 2014 Bring the Decline of Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance? Not likely.

One major question surrounding the implementation of ObamaCare is how it will affect the employer-sponsored health coverage. If employers change their current benefit offerings, this impacts both insurers and providers, but also potentially millions of Americans. Hence, both trade and popular press have been exploring the topic in headline after headline.
A previous post on this blog explored the impact of the very real possibility a majority of employers will shift to high-deductible health plans. These, of course, shift more financial responsibility for healthcare services on the individual employee and will mean big changes for healthcare providers, who will be responsible for collecting on these services rendered.
However, what if employers stop providing coverage altogether?
In Health Affairs’ September issue, an article by University of Michigan researchers analyzed several studies that have explored this question. Questionably, the studies have arrived at various findings. However, after reviewing the various studies and their methodologies, the researchers conclude:
“Microsimulation models built on sound economic principles have for the most part predicted relatively small declines in employer-sponsored coverage as a result of health reform, and we believe these predications are likely to be correct.”
According to the researchers’ analysis, while there are many factors that will influence employers’ decisions, provisions of the reform law that directly impact employers (i.e., penalties for large insurers not offering coverage and small business tax credits) increase the likelihood they’ll offer insurance. Additionally, the individual mandate will increase demand by most employees (all but low-income workers who would benefit from the tax subsidy) for employer-sponsored coverage.