As retailers, payers and drugmakers expand access to GLP-1 therapies — with companies like Amazon and Walmart launching weight management programs — the drug class is reshaping both care delivery and pharmaceutical investment strategies.
That demand is influencing drug development, with obesity treatments overtaking oncology as the largest contributor to late-stage pipeline value for the first time in 16 years, according to a May 4 report from Deloitte.
Here are five notes from the report:
- Pipeline shift: Obesity drugs now account for about 25% of projected late-stage pipeline value, surpassing oncology at 20%, down from 26% in 2024.
- Returns tied to GLP-1s: Projected R&D returns rose to 7% in 2025, up from 5.9% in 2024. Excluding GLP-1 assets, returns fell to 2.9%.
- Revenue concentration: GLP-1 therapies represent about 38% of projected commercial inflows, reflecting growing reliance on a small group of high-value assets.
- Portfolio risk: About 54 assets — roughly 9% of the pipeline — are expected to generate about 70% of total risk-adjusted peak sales.
- Rising costs: The average cost to develop a drug increased to $2,671 million in 2025 from $2,229 million in 2024, raising pressure on drugmakers to sustain returns.
