At least 21 million people could lose coverage between 2020 and 2026 under the proposed Graham-Cassidy bill, according to a new study from the Brookings Institution.
Beginning in 2020, the Graham-Cassidy proposal would roll back Medicaid expansion and federal premium subsidies and instead give states block grant funding. Though states may apply their block grants to supplement lost Medicaid coverage or offer premium subsidies, Brookings estimates 21 million Americans would still lose coverage by 2026. That number is expected to climb to 32 million in 2027 after the bill's block grant funding runs out at the end of 2026.
Though the loss of coverage may seem drastic, analysts at Brookings actually believe their estimates are conservative.
"For a few reasons, this estimate likely understates the reduction in insurance coverage that would actually occur under the Graham-Cassidy legislation. First, these estimates completely ignore the challenges associated with transitioning to the entirely new system envisioned under Graham-Cassidy," Matthew Fielder and Loren Adler write. "Transitions are difficult even under the best of circumstances."
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