The Affordable Care Act will make the labor supply, measured as the total compensation paid to workers, 0.86 percent smaller over the next decade than it would have been without the law, according to a 22-page report from the Congressional Budget Office.
The U.S. workforce will decrease by roughly 2 million full-time-equivalent workers by 2025 under the ACA than it would have been otherwise.
Most of that decline will occur because of health insurance expansions, which raise effective tax rates on earnings from labor by phasing out health insurance subsidies as people's income rises. This is expected to reduce the amount of labor workers choose to supply.
The CBO cautioned the estimates in its analysis were based on uncertain evidence. For instance, the agency does not yet know how people will react to work incentives created by the ACA, and older Americans who have remained in the workforce for employee health benefits may choose to retire.