New model helps predict risk of septic shock among kids in the ED

Colorado researchers have developed a model that lets clinicians predict the risk of a child experiencing septic shock in the emergency department, according to a study published in The Journal of Pediatrics.

Researchers from the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus in Aurora created the model, which runs EHR records through a predictive algorithm to predict septic shock risk among children on arrival at an ED.

They tested the model at six pediatric EDs and urgent care sites in the U.S., examining 2,464 visits of children younger than 18 years.

They found that 282, or 11.4 percent of the visits resulted in septic shock. The model was able to accurately predict septic shock risk for 90 percent of the cases.

"The early treatment for sepsis is relatively simple, but if it's not given early, a downward spiral of organ failure can begin that is difficult to reverse," said Halden Scott, MD, the study's lead author and associate professor of pediatrics at the University of Colorado School of Medicine and Children's Hospital Colorado, both in Aurora.

That's why the early diagnosis of sepsis is vital to improve outcomes, Dr. Scott added.

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