COVID-19 cases to jump 100% by May 7, plus 2 more forecasts

Modeling suggests COVID-19 cases will continue to rise over the next two weeks, but forecasts are murkier on whether this uptick will also fuel a prolonged, national increase in hospitalizations. 

Three COVID-19 forecasts to know:

Cases: Nationwide, daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 99.9 percent in the next two weeks, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 40,223.9 cases on April 23 to 80,418 by May 7. The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 14 cases per 100,000 population to 24.5 per 100,000 over the same period.

Hospitalizations: Daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next four weeks, with 200 to 4,000 new admissions likely reported on May 13, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 17 modeling groups. For context, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 hospital admissions for April 13-19 was 1,582, an 8.2 percent increase from the previous week's average. 

Deaths: U.S. COVID-19 deaths are expected to decrease over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 24 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,300 to 3,400 deaths likely reported in the week ending May 14, which would bring the nation's total COVID-19 death tally to a range of 995,000 to 1,005,000.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in cases, hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values April 25 at 3:30 p.m. CDT.


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