COVID-19 admissions to rise through July + 2 more forecasts

For the first time since late May, the CDC is predicting that COVID-19 admissions will increase nationwide, according to the agency's ensemble forecast from 16 modeling groups.

Nationwide, daily COVID-19 hospital admissions are projected to rise over the next four weeks, with 3,200 to 13,800 new admissions likely reported on Aug. 5, the forecast shows. 

The nation's current seven-day average of new hospital admissions is 5,884, up from 5,454 a week prior, CDC data shows. Although COVID-19 hospitalizations have been rising since mid-April, the nation's current seven-day average is still far lower than figures seen during last winter's omicron surge.

Two more forecasts to know:

Cases: Daily COVID-19 cases are projected to increase 15.8 percent in the next two weeks, a lower rate of increase than projected last week, according to modeling from Mayo Clinic. Forecasts suggest daily average cases will jump from 123,027.6 cases on July 15 to 142,455 by July 29. During the omicron surge, this figure hit a peak of more than 800,000, according to data tracked by The New York Times

The nation's case rate is also expected to increase from 40 cases per 100,000 population to 43.4 over the same period.

Deaths: COVID-19 deaths are projected to remain stable or have an uncertain trend over the next month, according to the CDC's ensemble forecast from 16 modeling groups. The forecast projects 1,000 to 4,800 new deaths likely reported in the week ending Aug. 6, which translates to a daily total of 142.9 to 685.7 deaths.

The nation's current seven-day daily death average was 420 as of July 17, up 9 percent in the last two weeks, according to data from the Times.

The CDC said its ensemble forecasts are among the most reliable for COVID-19 modeling, but they cannot predict rapid changes in hospitalizations or deaths. Therefore, they should not be relied on "for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends," the agency said.

Note: Mayo Clinic uses a Bayesian statistical model to forecast cases that automatically updates as new data becomes available. There is an uncertainty interval for forecast values, with lower and upper bounds that are not included in this list. To learn more about the data Mayo Clinic uses to forecast hot spots, click here. Becker's pulled the forecast values July 18 at 9:05 a.m. CDT.

 

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