When will COVID-19 peak? A state-by-state analysis

Peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 is expected by mid-April in the U.S., according to an analysis from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. 

The study presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.

While peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators, will occur at the national level in two weeks, this varies by state. About a third of states, including New York, are projected to hit peak capacity in the first half of April, but some states will see the most demand for hospital resources in May.

Below is the projected date of peak hospital resource demand in each state according to the model, which uses data last updated April 1.

April 8 
New Jersey 

April 9
Louisiana 
Michigan 
New York 
Vermont

April 11
Delaware 
Washington 

April 15
Alaska 
Connecticut 
District of Columbia

April 16
Massachusetts 

April 17
Alabama
Colorado 
Maine
New Hampshire 

April 18
Pennsylvania 

April 19
Indiana 
Ohio 
Tennessee 

April 20
Illinois 
Nevada
Rhode Island 

April 21
Mississippi 
North Dakota 

April 22
Minnesota 

April 23
Nebraska
Oklahoma 
Utah 

April 24
Georgia 
New Mexico 

April 26
Arkansas 
California 
Idaho 
Montana
North Carolina 

April 27
Arizona 
Wisconsin 

April 28
Kansas 
South Carolina 

April 29 
Maryland 

May 1
Iowa 

May 3
Florida 
Hawaii 

May 4
South Dakota 
West Virginia 
Wyoming 

May 5
Oregon 

May 6
Texas

May 16
Kentucky 

May 20 
Virginia 

May 21
Missouri 

More articles on patient flow:
Philadelphia hospital won't reopen to treat COVID-19 patients
US cities race to reopen shuttered hospitals as COVID-19 spreads
Will COVID-19 overwhelm hospitals near you? 16 things to know

 

© Copyright ASC COMMUNICATIONS 2020. Interested in LINKING to or REPRINTING this content? View our policies by clicking here.

 

Featured Webinars

Featured Whitepapers