Updated COVID-19 peak dates, state by state

Nearly 20 states are projected to see peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 over the next two weeks, according to updated projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. 

The model, first released in late March, presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained through the end of May. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.

IHME's model is updated regularly as new data becomes available. The current modeling does not capture how the risk for more COVID-19 cases, and potentially deaths, could rise due to increased interaction among people in the U.S. "This is particularly true if locations have not fully instituted strong containment strategies like widely available testing and contact tracing," IHME said. Access more information about the changes and the projected peak in daily deaths here

Some have criticized IHME's model, arguing its projections for total deaths shouldn't be used for government decision-making. However, the model continues to be widely used and influential in planning and preparation because of a lack of national models provided by the CDC or other federal agencies. Read more about the controversy in The Washington Post and STAT. IHME recommends decision-makers draw on a variety of COVID-19 models. 

According to IHME's most recent projections, which use data updated April 28, peak demand for hospital resources, namely hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators, occurred at the national level on April 19. However, this varies by state. Below is the projected date of peak demand for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators in each state according to IHME's model. 

April 4
Tennessee 

April 5
Washington 

April 7
Nevada 

April 8 
New York 

April 10
Idaho 

April 11
Wisconsin 

April 12
Oregon 

April 13
Louisiana 
Vermont

April 14
New Jersey 

April 16
Pennsylvania 

April 17
Alabama 
North Carolina 

April 18 
Michigan 
West Virginia 

April 19
California 
Colorado 
Florida
Maine 
Massachusetts 
Ohio 

April 20
Connecticut 
Maryland 
Oklahoma 
Virginia 

April 21
Delaware 
District of Columbia 
Illinois 
New Hampshire 

April 22
Indiana 
Missouri 

April 27
Hawaii 

April 28
Georgia 

April 29
Alaska 
Kentucky
Mississippi 
Montana
New Mexico 
Rhode Island 
South Carolina 
Texas

April 30
Minnesota 

May 1
Arizona 

May 2
Iowa 

May 3
Kansas 

May 4
Wyoming 

May 7
Arkansas 

May 12
Utah 

May 13
Nebraska 
South Dakota 

May 15
North Dakota 

More articles on patient flow:
Pennsylvania hospital to cease inpatient care
14 hospital leaders on the toughest thing about resuming elective surgeries
Outpatient visits down 60% because of COVID-19, study finds

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