Uterine cancer incidence is projected to increase an average of 40.8% between 2018 and 2050, with a bulk of the increase expected to occur among Black women. Mortality rates may almost double, according to a study published July 1 in Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention.
Led by Jason Wright, MD, chief of the division of gynecologic oncology at New York City-based Columbia University, researchers developed and validated a model to project uterine cancer incidence and mortality based on data from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results program.
Here are five notes on the study:
- Uterine cancer incidence increased 0.7% per year between 2013 and 2022 and mortality increased 1.6% per year between 2014 and 2023.
- From 2018 to 2050, uterine cancer incidence is projected to increase 28.6% among white women, from 57.7 to 74.2 cases per 100,000.
During the same period, incidence is projected to increase 53.0% among Black women, from 56.8 cases to 86.9 cases per 100,000. - Also for the same period, incidence-based mortality from uterine cancer is projected to increase 83.6% among white women, from 6.1 to 11.2 deaths per 100,000.
Incidence-based mortality from uterine cancer is projected to increase 97.9% among Black women, from 14.1 to 27.9 deaths per 100,000. - Endometroid tumor incidence is projected to increase 28.9% among white women, from 49.2 to 63.4 per 100,000, and 47.7% among Black women from 34.2 to 50.5 per 100,000.
Non-endometroid tumor incidence is projected to increase 27.1% among white women, from 8.5 to 10.8 per 100,000, and 61.3% among Black women from 22.5 to 36.3 per 100,000. - “The stress testing suggests that if there was an effective screening test, we may be able to substantially reduce the burden of disease,” Dr. Wright said in a July 1 news release from the American Association for Cancer Research. “While there is presently no screening or prevention that is routinely used for uterine cancer, we are currently examining the potential impact of integrating screening for this cancer into practice.”
Read the full report here.
