1. Loosened cost controls. HMOs in the late 1990s had successfully slowed growth in healthcare spending, but by the end of that decade they had come to be regarded as heartless conservators of the bottom line. Managed care's tight controls began to loosen and "the negotiating power slipped back into the hands of the providers," says Dick Clarke, president of the Healthcare Financial Management Association. Healthcare costs again began increasing faster than the general rate of inflation. "It's not clear yet how much of that will change if providers come under more pressure to contain prices," he says.
2. Healthcare IT. Healthcare information technology, still rough around the edges in 2000, became a major force in hospital operations by the end of the decade, says Michael Rowan, COO and executive vice president of Catholic Health Initiatives in Denver. Innovations like computerized physician order entry and electronic medical records have been shown to improve safety as well as efficiency. Now, thanks to billions of dollars in incentives in the 2009 HITECH legislation, healthcare IT holds the promise of becoming virtually universal in the next few years. But Mr. Rowan reports that HITECH funds will pay for only about a quarter of the cost of the new technology.
3. Patient safety movement. At the start of the decade, hospitals were just beginning to hear word of one of the most influential reports in the history of U.S. healthcare: "To Err Is Human: Building a Safer Health System," published in Nov. 1999 by the Institute of Medicine. It concluded that from 44,000- 98,000 people die annually — the equivalent of 10 fully loaded 757 commercial airliners crashing each week, the report stated — due to errors in inpatient hospital treatment.
As a result, "hospitals started to get much more serious about quality and safety," says Mr. Clarke at HFMA. The industry embraced continuous quality improvement, adds Thomas Dolan, president and CEO of the American College of Healthcare Executives. "Everybody realized that we have to constantly improve quality and it actually lowers costs because it reduces waste," he says.
4. Physician entrepreneurialism. Many physicians became entrepreneurs, investing in ASCs, imaging centers and specialty hospitals as a way to supplement declining income due to lack of increases in reimbursements and become more efficient. The trend, however, put physicians into conflict with hospitals, who were concerned about losing market share to the leaner, physician-run organizations. By the end of the decade, it seemed that hospitals and regulators had blunted the trend.
"The ban on physician-owned hospitals in the health reform legislation signals the decline of the entrepreneurial physician," says Nicholas Wolter, MD, a former MedPAC commissioner and CEO of the Billings (Mont.) Clinic. However, ASCs seem to have become a permanent fixture in U.S. healthcare, offering discounts too big for payors to pass up.
5. Healthcare consumerism. "The future of market-oriented health policy and practice lies in 'managed consumerism,' a blend of the patient-centric focus of consumer-driven healthcare and the provider-centric focus of managed competition," declared Jamie Robinson, a professor of health economics at the University of California, Berkeley, School of Public Health, in 2005 in the journal Health Affairs.
With the decline of HMOs, consumer-driven healthcare became a new way to contain costs. High deductible plans, with or without tax-free health savings accounts, would make patients cost-conscious consumers. Ratings of doctors and hospitals, from HealthGrades to CMS' Hospital Compare site, would aid patients in choosing the best providers. Retail clinics opened to serve these new consumers. Hospitals developed a new fascination with patient satisfaction surveys. Brand-new hospitals lavished spending on patient-friendly design features, such as single rooms, sunlit atriums and concierge services, and these features seemed to shift market share.
6. Shortages of healthcare personnel. In July 2007, the American Hospital Association reported 116,000 open positions for registered nurses in hospitals, and the existing RN workforce was aging. Mr. Rowan at Catholic Health Initiatives observes that the recession has erased the shortage for now, at least, as RNs were forced back into the workforce or into full-time work as family income fell.
Physician shortages also emerged. In a dramatic about-face at the beginning of the decade, the federal Council on Graduate Medical Education abandoned its long-held forecast of a physician surplus and predicted a shortage of 85,000 physicians by 2020. Since then, medical schools have been substantially increasing class sizes, but Congress has not removed a cap on the number of Medicare-funded graduate medical education positions for physicians that has been in place since 1997.
"Current evidence suggests that the United States is headed toward an aggregate shortage of physicians," the Association of American Medical Colleges declared in 2009. "Given the extended time required to increase U.S. medical school capacity, and to educate and train physicians, the nation must begin now to increase medical school and GME capacity to meet the needs of the nation in 2015 and beyond."
7. Accountable health organizations. While entrepreneurial physicians continued to spin off from hospitals throughout the decade, Dr. Wolter, the former MedPAC commissioner, says an opposing trend also emerged. Many young physicians were eagerly becoming employees. Accountable health organizations such as Mayo Clinic, the Cleveland Clinic and Geisinger Health System thrived by closely aligning hospitals and doctors to make care more efficient and effective.
Mr. Rowan at Catholic Health Initiatives says accountable health organizations seemed to be taking a lesson from the ASC playbook. Incentivizing physicians can make healthcare more efficient. But he adds that the trend is not easy for hospitals. "Many hospitals have no expertise in running practices," Mr. Rowan says. "We're hospital people, not group management people." Hospitals used to hire doctors merely to generate business. Now, he says, "hospitals want doctors to take financial responsibility for outcomes."
8. Recession. "The decade will be known for the financial turmoil that came at the end," says Mr. Clarke of HFMA. In March 2009, Thomson Reuters reported that the median profit margin of U.S. hospitals has fallen to zero percent. Hospitals tightened their belts and many of them ended the decade solidly in the black. But the numbers of non-paying patients are still high and many leaders like Clarke believe we are entering an era of having to do more with less.
Share your thoughts on the top hospital and health system trends of the past decade by e-mailing Leigh Page at leigh@beckersasc.com.