National health spending to outpace GDP growth from 2019-28

The average annual rate of national health spending is expected to grow 5.4 percent for 2019-28, outpacing growth in gross domestic product by 1.1 percentage points, according to new estimates from CMS' Office of the Actuary.

The estimates, published in Health Affairs, show that by 2028, the health share of the economy is expected to grow to 19.7 percent, up from 17.7 percent in 2018. CMS noted the estimates are based on current-law framework and don't reflect the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The biggest driver of growth in national health spending is higher prices for medical services and goods. 

Among payers, Medicare is expected to see average annual spending growth of 7.6 percent, higher than Medicaid (5.5 percent) and private health insurance (4.8 percent).

Access the full projections here

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