The Congressional Budget Office partially analyzed the financial effects of the latest Republican ACA repeal-and-replace bill proposed by Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Bill Cassidy, R-La., finding the legislation would reduce the federal deficit by at least $133 billion over 10 years, but result in "millions" of Americans losing health insurance coverage.
Here are four takeaways from the CBO score.
1. The nonpartisan CBO estimates the Graham-Cassidy bill would reduce the federal deficit by at least $133 billion by 2026. "Those savings would occur mainly because, under the legislation, outlays from new block grants between 2020 and 2026 would be smaller than the reduction in net federal subsidies for health insurance. Funding would shift away from states that expanded eligibility for Medicaid under the ACA and toward states that did not," the CBO said.
2. Although the federal deficit would decline, the number of uninsured Americans would rise, the CBO projects. The scoring agency estimates "millions" of Americans would lose coverage under Graham Cassidy through 2026, "compared with the baseline projections for each year." The CBO notes the exact number of Americans who would lose insurance coverage would "vary widely" depending on states' implementation of the bill.
3. Multiple factors would contribute to the number of Americans who would lose insurance coverage under Graham-Cassidy compared to the ACA. Factors cited by the CBO include decreased Medicaid enrollment due to federal funding cuts, and decreased enrollment in individual coverage due to reductions in subsidies. Additionally, all health insurance enrollment would decline because Graham-Cassidy would repeal ACA penalties for lacking coverage, the CBO said. The scoring agency added coverage losses "would be partly offset by enrollment in new programs established by states using the block grants and by somewhat higher enrollment in employment-based insurance. Many of the new programs would probably cover people with characteristics similar to those of people made eligible for Medicaid by the ACA."
4. The CBO score is only a partial analysis. The analysis released by the CBO Monday does not include point estimates regarding effects of Graham-Cassidy on the federal deficit, insurance coverage and premiums. The CBO said it would need "at least several weeks" to provide such estimates. However, a vote on the bill using Senate budget reconciliation rules would have to occur by Sept. 30.
More articles on healthcare finance:
Ascension's net income more than triples to $1.8B
Sen. Grassley: Tax-exempt hospitals shouldn't need 'herculean oversight' to meet charitable obligations
California hospital's reporting errors cause Medicare to overpay 173 other facilities