Despite warnings from opponents of the Affordable Care Act, to date, there is no evidence that the Obama administration's signature health reform has had a negative impact on economic growth or that its measures have eroded full-time employment. To the contrary, findings show the ACA has likely stimulated the economy and contributed to more than 13 million new jobs over the last five years, according to a recent report from the Commonwealth Fund.
When the ACA was enacted in 2010, policymakers were contending with the effects of the worst economic recession since the Great Depression. Between 2010 and 2015, the economy began to slowly recover. The U.S.' gross domestic product grew by 21 percent between 2010 and 2015, with inflation-adjusted cumulative growth exceeding 13 percent by the third quarter of 2015, according to the report. Notably, GDP growth rates sped up between 2012 and 2014, the same time the ACA's marketplaces and Medicaid expansion came into effect.
Here are eight more effects the ACA has had on the economy and U.S. job growth since its implementation, according to the Commonwealth Fund.
1. As of December 2015, 13.4 million more people were employed than in March 2010. Total nonfarm employment levels now exceed pre-recession peak levels, with 5.3 million additional people holding jobs.
2. All of the net gain employment growth has occurred in the private sector — public sector employment has fallen since 2010. The private sector added nearly 14 million jobs over the five-year period, while government jobs decreased by one-half million to a net total of 13.4 million new jobs.
3. Job expansion was markedly strong in 2014 and 2015, with an average of 200,000 jobs added per month for the two years, totaling an annual increase of 3 million jobs. The cumulative increase in employment between 2010 and 2015 was more than double the eight-year growth in employment between 2000 and 2008.
4. The unemployment rate has declined from 9.9 percent to 5 percent. However, the percentage of people who are no longer seeking employment, and therefore are not considered unemployed, remain above pre-recession levels, according to the report.
5. Although critics of the ACA worried employers would replace full-time positions with part-time ones to avoid the health insurance requirements for full-time employees, full-time employment increased substantially. There have also been concerns that the employer mandate would encourage employers to reduce the number of people they employ directly, since firms with fewer than 50 people are exempt from the mandate. However, to date, job growth has been equal across firms of all sizes, according to the report.
6. Despite improved rates of full-time job growth, there has been little improvement in average weekly pay or income for working families. Over the last five years, average wages in the private sector have struggled to keep up with inflation. Overall, there has been little or no improvement in median incomes since 2010. This is consistent with a long-term pattern that began before the recession occurred in 2007.
7. The slowdown in healthcare spending that began during the recession before the enactment of the ACA has continued throughout the U.S. period of economic recovery. According to the Commonwealth Fund, growth in national healthcare expenditures slowed to the rate of the overall economic growth from 2009 to 2014.
8. The Congressional Budget Office has revised its federal budget projections multiple times as a result of the slower pace of private as well as Medicare spending through 2014. Additionally, the Medicare spending per beneficiary is now below the rate of inflation. The CBO's most recently revised projection states Medicare spending by 2020 will be $186 billion below the level projected in January 2010, for a cumulative savings of $1 trillion over the 10 year period.