Thus far, the 2015-16 winter season has been reasonably mild across the country. The warmer weather is causing a delay in the start of flu season — which, while beneficial for health insurers, isn't helping hospitals, according to Bloomberg Business.
Last year's flu season harmed big-name insurers like Aetna and Anthem, who said influenza levels caused higher-than-expected fourth quarter spending on medical care. The flu levels assisted health systems like Franklin, Tenn.-based Community Health and Nashville, Tenn.-based HCA in reaching better fourth quarter results during fiscal year 2014.
But the situation is different this year. The lack of a flu outbreak caused Centene to increase its 2015 earnings guidance by approximately five cents in December. Meanwhile, Community Health Systems' shares fell 7.9 percent on Jan. 5. Raymond James Financial analyst John Ransom cut his rating for CHS this week, according to Bloomberg, in part due to the weak flu season and also because of tepid business from the Affordable Care Act.
Still, it's hard to guess what the rest of the flu season will hold. "We are a little later than in the past couple of years, but it's too early to say if it will be a mild or severe season," said Joseph Bresee, MD, chief of epidemiology and prevention at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. "While the weather may have something to do with it, it's always hard to predict when the flu will come."
Although CDC data shows the number of individuals making outpatient visits for influenza increased near the end of 2015, some analysts believe the flu season will be mild. "Certainly all the indications at this stage are that we're not in for a big year," said Richard Webby, PhD, director of the WorldHealthOrganizationCollaboratingCenter for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza.